Executive summary
August marked a post-conflict record, with more than 190 non-Iranian-linked vessels entering the Gulf. It was the first month since March in which inbound traffic exceeded outbound movements. At least 346 non-Iranian-linked ships transited the Strait of Hormuz during August, comprising 191 westbound and 155 eastbound voyages.
Transit activity remains volatile and weekly volumes are likely to fluctuate during periods of heightened violence. Preliminary data shows 82 non-Iranian-linked ship transits between 24 and 30 August, down from 100 the previous week. However, the August weekly average stood at 78 transits, compared with 48 before the temporary Memorandum of Understanding triggered a short-lived recovery in traffic. It remains too early to assess transit levels between 31 August and 6 September.
Key takeaways
Inbound traffic reaches post-conflict high. Non-Iranian-linked inbound traffic, defined by ownership, trade exposure or sanctions status, has reached its highest level since the conflict began. A total of 191 westbound transits were recorded in August, up from 160 in July, with the figure likely to rise as additional dark transits are identified. Inbound movements provide a useful indicator of owner and operator confidence. The increase suggests a degree of adaptation to the higher-risk operating environment, but does not indicate a broad return to pre-conflict trading patterns.
Crude tankers lead the recovery. Crude tankers drove the increase in westbound traffic. At least 112 non-Iranian-linked crude tanker transits were recorded in August, up from 72 in July. Other sectors, including bulk carriers and containerships, saw little change, while inbound gas carrier traffic declined month on month.
Iran proposes new shipping corridor. Iran says it is close to agreeing a new shipping corridor with Oman through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed route would run through Iranian and Omani waters under Iranian management. No formal proposal or supporting documentation has yet been submitted to the International Maritime Organization.
Ships continue to ignore Iranian restrictions. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, established by Iran to oversee Hormuz transits, began publishing a list of "banned" vessels last month. The authority says vessels deemed non-compliant could face transit restrictions.
The list now includes approximately 56 ships after a further 11 were added this month. At least seven listed vessels have subsequently transited the Strait of Hormuz despite the restrictions.
Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Strait of Hormuz Transit Monitor
Security summary
Security conditions continue to deteriorate. Escalating US-Iran hostilities have further heightened risks to commercial shipping across the Gulf region, with US forces firng on five Iranian tanker, reportedly sinking one in the Gulf of Oman after an Iranian attack on a US Navy warship, while Tehran claims to have targeted vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The deteriorating security environment has coincided with Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel and a marked expansion of threats to merchant shipping. Separate drone attacks on Wednesday struck a Panama-flagged tanker in Iraqi territorial waters, and a Gibraltar-flagged bunker tanker near the UAE, resulting in one confirmed fatality, one missing crew member and reports of water ingress. The incidents underscore the growing threat from drones and missiles beyond the Strait of Hormuz, extending across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Iraqi waters.
US Central Command continues to enforce its blockade of Iranian ports, reporting that 94 merchant vessels have been redirected, three disabled and two boarded.
Threat level to commercial shipping remains severe. According to the Joint Maritime Information Center deliberate hostile action is likely.
Risk outlook
Analysts expect disruption to keep tanker markets elevated through 2027. VLCC rates have hit record highs, with Middle East Gulf-China earnings reaching $760,000 per day as longer voyages, vessel shortages and conflict-related inefficiencies outweigh lower Gulf crude exports.
Gulf producers are taking greater control of export risk. Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO is exploring secondhand tanker acquisitions as security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz drive exporters towards greater fleet ownership, accelerating a broader shift towards state-backed operators willing to assume higher risk.
Maritime nations warn geopolitical fragmentation is straining global shipping. A coalition of 18 leading maritime states says sanctions disputes, competing legal interpretations and growing geopolitical divisions are undermining the rules-based order that underpins global trade.
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* Lloyd’s List Intelligence defines a tanker as being part of the Shadow Fleet if it engages in one or more deceptive shipping practices indicating that it is involved in the facilitation of sanctioned oil cargoes from Iran, Russia or Venezuela. Or it is sanctioned for participation in sanctioned oil trades or is sanctioned for links to a company that is sanctioned for facilitating the export of sanctioned oil. Or it participates in a cargo delivery where at some point over the course of the delivery one party in the chain engages in one or more deceptive shipping practices.
Lloyd’s List defines an LPG carrier as being part of the LPG Shadow Fleet if it engages in one or more deceptive shipping practices, or if it is sanctioned by the US, UK or EU.
Seasearcher subscribers can activate the Shadow Fleet list by clicking the links above.
This briefing was compiled by the Maritime Intelligence Unit.
All analysis focuses on cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt.
