Suez Canal
- September 2026: 1228 transits/106.3m dwt
- August 2026: 1234 transits/102.9m dwt
- September traffic up 21% YoY, down 39% on pre-Houthi crisis levels
Bab el Mandeb
- September 2026: 1215 transits/95.6m dwt
- August 2026: 1170 transits/93.1m dwt
- September traffic up 16% YoY, down 47% on pre-Houthi crisis levels
Executive summary
Suez traffic topped 100m dwt worth of tonnage for second consecutive month, with September being the busiest month since December 2023. The gains were largely driven by containerships.
Bab el Mandeb transits grew about 4% in September. While traffic flows are well above crisis-era lows, movements are 16% lower than the tanker driven peak that was seen after the start of the Gulf crisis and before the Houthis announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports.
Key takeaways
Red Sea’s bulk carrier momentum has been lost. There was meaningful and sustained growth in bulker traffic through both Suez and the Bab el Mandeb from April to July this year, but this trend has since reversed. The rapid decline in the security situation in the Black Sea over the summer has significantly reduced bulk exports from Ukraine and Russia, which were often transported to markets in the east via the Red Sea.
Tankers laden with Russian crude dominate September traffic. The majority of tankers sailing through the Suez Canal were ships delivering Russian crude to India, while Russia remained India’s largest crude supplier.
Restoration of container services drives Red Sea return. Containership traffic through the Red Sea has hit a post-crisis high as more carriers switch back from the longer Cape of Good Hope diversion route. This is helping to push down spot rates on the Asia-Europe trade as more capacity is freed up. Containership traffic through Suez reached 2.19m teu in September, up 40% month on month. In September 2023, before the Houthis’ launched their campaign of aggression in the Red Sea, this figure was 5.9m teu.
Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Red Sea Transit Monitor
Security summary
A Chinese-operated containership was fired upon off Yemen on October 7. The vessel, operated by Chinese carrier CU Lines, came under attack while transiting northbound through the southern Red Sea. All crew are safe. The incident coincided with renewed fighting around Mocha and missile strikes targeting Aden, although the Houthis did not take responsibility for the attack. The incident is notable for CU Lines which has expanded aggressively across Middle East and Red Sea trades amid prolonged regional disruption.
Risk outlook
Red Sea recovery is gathering pace, but that recovery is uneven. While all major market segments have seen some degree of a return, there is evidence that this return has slowed or stagnated for some industries. There is also a divergence in how this “revival” is playing out in the northern and southern chokepoints, with the Suez Canal seeing more gains – particularly in crude – as Saudi Arabia reconfigures its regional trade.
The renewed tensions in the Red Sea have had a limited impact on the wider shipping industry, with the market adjusting accordingly. As such, the Red Sea Brief will now be published every other week unless there is a change in circumstances.
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This brief was compiled by the Maritime Intelligence Unit
All analysis focuses on cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt
