Market cycles can be forecast, but with limited reliability. The extremities of market peaks, however, are driven by ‘black swans’ – developments and events that happen only rarely, tend to catch society by surprise, and have a transformative impact around the globe.
Ill-equipped shipping, finance and insurance businesses have found themselves navigating a maze of international enforcement that is riddled with contradictions. Compliance experts have found themselves under sharply increased demand round-the-clock, as they labour to navigate the rapidly evolving financial trade restrictions.
From aspiration to action: How shipping’s leaders plan to accelerate the decarbonisation timeline.
The shipping industry faces a generational challenge. It must transition away from fossil fuels as the dominant marine energy source within the lifespan of today’s newbuilt ships, but it must do so amid regulatory, financial and technical uncertainty.
We examine the global scale of the operations that transport and exchange illicit commodities through a network of vessels using similar playbook tactics to evade detection. Our data shows how large and impactful the problem is today – and it’s growing and evolving.
There are deep implications to the decisions that shipowners need to make now on how they will meet emissions targets over the coming years. Whichever route they take, our analysis shows that the transition to zero carbon will have a profound impact across the industry.
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) capital requirements will trigger the need for scale, stability, and consolidation - married with long term cargo trends and interests; together stimulating a tectonic shift in shipping business models.